What’s Wrong with Conspiracy Theories

Some conspiracy theories are legitimate (e.g., Watergate, Contragate), so it is necessary to ask how we can distinguish legitimate from illegitimate conspiracy theories (ICTs). There are eight indicators that a conspiracy theory is probably an ICT.

1. Illegitimate conspiracy theories  are unfalsifiable; any conceivable evidence brought against the ICT is part of the conspiracy.

2. ICTs explain too much. Given the imperfection of human understanding, we should expect some errant data (i.e., data that is unnaccounted for or seems contradictory); however, ICTs take every item of errant data as evidence of a conspiracy. To quote Francis Crick: “One’s theory should not fit all the available data because some of the available data is not true.”

Discussing the 5 Predominant Theories of Truth

3. Illegitimate conspiracy theories (ICTs) require us to be skeptical of all sources of information, e.g., the mass media, all branches of government, history books, educators, and even each other. But if we must be skeptical of all information sources, then we must also be skeptical of the source of the ICT.

4. ICTs are solely devoted to undermining competing explanations while generating no new, positive evidence.

5. Illegitimate conspiracy theories (ICTs) require massive numbers of people to be involved in the cover-up (the media, government employees, etc.); but 3 people can hardly keep a secret, never mind 3,000.

6. Illegitimate conspiracy theories leave us unable to explain anything. For example, if the story of the deaths of 6,000,000 Jews at the hands of the Nazis is merely the product of a conspiracy, then why should we believe that WWII happened at all? Why should we believe that FDR was president? Why should we believe that Hiroshima was bombed ?

7. Illegitimate conspiracy theories (ICTs) over-rationalize the universe by maintaining that someone is in control. Better malign control than no control at all. But Chaos theory shows that systems as complex as modern societies are not ultimately controllable; bureaucracies are made up of too many people with too many agendas to be controlled. Nobody is in control of everything, which is not to say that events in the world are random, only that they lack broadly coherent meaning or purpose.

8. Illegitimate conspiracy theories (ICTs) undermine our faith in the motives and good-will of others on a global scale.

Also Read:  Note toward a Cognitive Theory of Faith

• Some of the ideas in this note are borrowed from “Of Conspiracy Theories,” Brian Keeley, The Journal of Philosophy XCVI, March, 1999.